The price you expect to sign and the margin your board wants set a ceiling on what the ship may cost to build. This shows that ceiling, the distance from it to your own estimate, and — for your largest cost block — how far it has to fall and what that is worth.
The price you expect to sign at, the margin your board wants on it, and what your own people say the ship will cost to build. All three from memory — nothing is looked up, nothing is sent.
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Pick the one block that eats most of the ship — steel hull, engine room, outfitting. Two shares: how much of the cost it takes, and how much the owner actually cares about it. The second number is a guess about somebody else's head unless you asked them.
| Line | Ship X, ordered 2014 |
|---|---|
| Contract price | 30 080 000 TL |
| Margin the board wanted | 25% |
| Highest cost the price allowed | 22 560 000 TL |
| What the design team estimated | 24 000 000 TL |
| Cost-reduction goal | 1 440 000 TL |
A 6,100 DWT chemical tanker ordered in 2014 at a Tuzla yard. The estimate was built from the closed cost of a similar ship the yard had finished the year before. The gap — 6.0% of the estimate — was closed at the drawing board: the steel hull took 29.07% of the cost against 13.39% of what the owner cared about, and cutting it to 20.11% brought the project to 21,307,115 TL, under the ceiling.
One yard, not an average. 25% is one board asking for 25% on one order, not an industry margin. A yard with different capital costs, a different order book or a different owner sits somewhere else and is not wrong for it.
The importance number is a hypothesis. In the documented case it was built from the owner's own rating of seven functions plus engineers' and foremen's scoring of which component serves which function. Typed from memory it is a guess about somebody else's head — good enough to order where you look first, not good enough to decide on.
Cutting one block moves every other share. The total shrinks, so blocks you did not touch look more expensive on paper. In the documented case the engine room drifted from a near-ideal index of 0.95 to 0.85 on a cut made somewhere else entirely; the documented case does not comment on it.
Not an audit, and not a forecast. Two numbers from memory and a ceiling derived from them. It answers one question — whether the price and the plan are the same size — which most yards answer after delivery, when the answer costs money instead of saving it.
This is one reading, taken by hand today. The same count can run by itself on a project you have on the floor now: the documents your yard already produces go to one place, and every week the count comes back — leak by package, forecast to completion — without anyone stopping to take a measurement.